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Articles| Volume 17, ISSUE 9, P1203-1216, September 01, 2016


30-day mortality after systemic anticancer treatment for breast and lung cancer in England: a population-based, observational study

Background
30-day mortality might be a useful indicator of avoidable harm to patients from systemic anticancer treatments, but data for this indicator are limited. The Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy (SACT) dataset collated by Public Health England allows the assessment of factors affecting 30-day mortality in a national patient population. The aim of this first study based on the SACT dataset was to establish national 30-day mortality benchmarks for breast and lung cancer patients receiving SACT in England, and to start to identify where patient care could be improved.

Methods
In this population-based study, we included all women with breast cancer and all men and women with lung cancer residing in England, who were 24 years or older and who started a cycle of SACT in 2014 irrespective of the number of previous treatment cycles or programmes, and irrespective of their position within the disease trajectory. We calculated 30-day mortality after the most recent cycle of SACT for those patients. We did logistic regression analyses, adjusting for relevant factors, to examine whether patient, tumour, or treatment-related factors were associated with the risk of 30-day mortality. For each cancer type and intent, we calculated 30-day mortality rates and patient volume at the hospital trust level, and contrasted these in a funnel plot.
Findings
Between Jan 1, and Dec, 31, 2014, we included 23 228 patients with breast cancer and 9634 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in our regression and trust-level analyses. 30-day mortality increased with age for both patients with breast cancer and patients with NSCLC treated with curative intent, and decreased with age for patients receiving palliative SACT (breast curative: odds ratio [OR] 1·085, 99% CI 1·040–1·132; p<0·0001; NSCLC curative: 1·045, 1·013–1·079; p=0·00033; breast palliative: 0·987, 0·977–0·996; p=0·00034; NSCLC palliative: 0·987, 0·976–0·998; p=0·0015). 30-day mortality was also significantly higher for patients receiving their first reported curative or palliative SACT versus those who received SACT previously (breast palliative: OR 2·326 99% CI 1·634–3·312; p<0·0001; NSCLC curative: 3·371, 1·554–7·316; p<0·0001; NSCLC palliative: 2·667, 2·109–3·373; p<0·0001), and for patients with worse general wellbeing (performance status 2–4) versus those who were generally well (breast curative: 6·057, 1·333–27·513; p=0·0021; breast palliative: 6·241, 4·180–9·319; p<0·0001; NSCLC palliative: 3·384, 2·276–5·032; p<0·0001). We identified trusts with mortality rates in excess of the 95% control limits; this included seven for curative breast cancer, four for palliative breast cancer, five for curative NSCLC, and seven for palliative NSCLC.
Interpretation
Our findings show that several factors affect the risk of early mortality of breast and lung cancer patients in England and that some groups are at a substantially increased risk of 30-day mortality. The identification of hospitals with significantly higher 30-day mortality rates should promote review of clinical decision making in these hospitals. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of collecting routine data beyond clinical trials to better understand the factors placing patients at higher risk of 30-day mortality, and ultimately improve clinical decision making. Our insights into the factors affecting risk of 30-day mortality will help treating clinicians and their patients predict the balance of harms and benefits associated with SACT.
Funding
Public Health England.

• View related content for this article
Introduction
The use of systemic anticancer therapies (SACTs) has increased substantially in the past three decades.1
, 2
SACTs were previously only used to treat a small number of cancer types, but are now used routinely in many patients with common solid cancers.1
, 2
, 3
, 4
There is huge potential to improve patient care if the outcomes of these patients can be monitored more effectively, and if clinicians better understand the outcomes that are achieved with current approaches to treatment.
SACTs can be given with the aim of improving long-term survival, either alone or in combination with surgery or radiotherapy. They can also be given for palliative purposes, to improve the quality of life for patients with advanced incurable cancers for as long as possible by controlling cancer growth and providing symptom relief. For some patients, this approach might also increase survival time.
Patients dying within 30 days after beginning treatment with SACT are unlikely to have gained the survival or palliative benefits of the treatment, and in view of the side-effects sometimes caused by SACT, are more likely to have suffered harm. In particular, the risk of neutropenic sepsis (infection resulting from low blood neutrophil count, probably the most important cause of SACT-related death) is highest in the 30 days after SACT, peaking at around 11–15 days after treatment.5

SACT cycles are typically 21 or, less commonly, 28 days long, so death from neutropenic sepsis from the previous treatment is captured within the 30-day mortality metric. Simply reducing doses of or avoiding SACT altogether would reduce or eliminate instances of treatment-related early mortality, but at the cost of some patients being denied effective SACT and hence the survival and palliation benefits.

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